Bernanke - Recession 'Very Likely Over'

With this recession affecting all of us, we are anxiously awaiting signs that the free fall has stopped and recovery is on the way. In a presentation to congress on Tuesday, Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, said the worst recession since the 1930's is probably over. That does not mean we can dance in the streets yet... with an unemployment rate of 9.7% and forecasts that it will continue to climb above 10%. (The highest post World War II unemployment rate was in 1982 at 10.8%.) Some economists project that it could take up to 4 years for the rate to move back to the norm of about 5%.

BUT, finally in this 3rd quarter we are seeing the US economy actually grow rather than shrink. Retails sales jumped 2.7% during August... the most in 3 years! At least there is some good news on the horizon that can hopefully keep this generation of Americans from the desperation of the Depression.

Locally here along the beaches of Tampa Bay, although we continue to see devalued properties and an abundance of short sales and foreclosures, the overall inventory has stabilized and has now begun to shrink. We are seeing many sellers choosing to rent out their homes or condos in order to "wait out the market" for a time when their properties will command a higher dollar. The question on the minds of both Buyers and Sellers is whether prices will continue decline or whether the low prices we are seeing today will be gone tomorrow. We are watching the statistics very closely... from average days on the market, to list to sales price ratio, to simply doing searches for buyers that show availability of a certain product at a certain price.

We'll keep you posted...